WRF Model Forecast

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Locally-run WRF model output
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Who are we? Professor Michael Morgan
Ross Lazear
Nick Bassill
Brett Hoover
Andy Hulme
Dan Chavas

Locally-run WRF model output analyses and forecast

Currently, all combinations of the WSM3 and Ferrier MPs, Kain-Fritsch and Betts-Miller-Janjic CPs, and YSU and MYJ BLPs are run.
(This gives 2 x 2 x 2 = 8 total). In addition, the Grell-3 CP in conjunction with the YSU BLP is run for both the WSM3 and Ferrier MPs, yielding a total of 10 ensemble members.

All simulations are run 120 hours and are initialized with GFS 0000 UTC 0.5 x 0.5 data with GFS 1.0 x 1.0 data for the boundary conditions of the outer domain.
The outer domain has a 90 km grid spacing, and the inner domain uses the outer domain to create its boundary conditions. The inner domain has a 30 km grid
spacing. Both the outer grid and the inner grid use the same physics. The model is WRFV3-ARW and WPS processes the input.

Currently output is posted around 1800 UTC for the outer grids and 0300 UTC for the inner grids, but this may move up as computer resources become better allocated.

Outer Grid Maps Below

The table below provides ensemble mean maps (with spreads) for all ten members on the outer grid

Ensembles & Spreads	Analysis	24 Hour	48 Hour	72 Hour	96 Hour	120 Hour	Loops
Sea Level Pressure	00	24	48	72	96	120	FLI
850 hPa Vorticity	00	24	48	72	96	120	FLI
800 hPa Theta-E	00	24	48	72	96	120	FLI
850:500 hPa Layer RH	00	24	48	72	96	120	FLI
500 hPa Height	00	24	48	72	96	120	FLI
250 hPa Wind Speed	00	24	48	72	96	120	FLI
150:250 hPa PV (with layer average winds) + 800:900 hPa PV (no spreads)	00	24	48	72	96	120	FLI
Total Precipitation						120

Experimental Outer Grid Track Map (each color represents a distinct combination of parameterizations)

9 Panel Plot of 120 Hour 10 m Winds and Sea Level Pressure of Outer Domain Forecasts

Inner Grid Maps Below

The table below provides loops of two different analyses for each of the 10 members for the inner grid

800 hPa Theta-E + SLP	Kain-Fritsch CP + YSU BLP	Kain-Fritsch CP + MYJ BLP	Betts-Miller-Janjic CP + YSU BLP	Betts-Miller-Janjic CP + MYJ BLP	Grell-3 CP + YSU BLP
Eta/Ferrier MP	FLI	FLI	FLI	FLI	FLI
WSM3 MP	FLI	FLI	FLI	FLI	FLI

500 hPa Height + Vorticity	Kain-Fritsch CP + YSU BLP	Kain-Fritsch CP + MYJ BLP	Betts-Miller-Janjic CP + YSU BLP	Betts-Miller-Janjic CP + MYJ BLP	Grell-3 CP + YSU BLP
Eta/Ferrier MP	FLI	FLI	FLI	FLI	FLI
WSM3 MP	FLI	FLI	FLI	FLI	FLI

The table below provides 9-panel plots of the 10 above simulations, with the exception of the Ferrier MP + Grell-3 CP + YSU BLP.

9 Panel Plots	Analysis	12 Hour	24 Hour	36 Hour	48 Hour	60 Hour	72 Hour	84 Hour	96 Hour	108 Hour	120 Hour	Loops
10 m Winds	00	12	24	36	48	60	72	84	96	108	120	FLI
850 hPa Vorticity	00	12	24	36	48	60	72	84	96	108	120	FLI
800 hPa Theta-E & SLP	00	12	24	36	48	60	72	84	96	108	120	FLI
850-500 hPa Layer RH & +W	00	12	24	36	48	60	72	84	96	108	120	FLI
850-250 hPa Wind Shear & SLP	00	12	24	36	48	60	72	84	96	108	120	FLI
500 hPa Height & Vorticity	00	12	24	36	48	60	72	84	96	108	120	FLI
250 hPa Wind & Height	00	12	24	36	48	60	72	84	96	108	120	FLI
3 Hour Precipitation & SLP	00	12	24	36	48	60	72	84	96	108	120	FLI
150:250 hPa and 800:900 hPa PV	00	12	24	36	48	60	72	84	96	108	120	FLI

The table below provides ensemble mean maps (with spreads) for the above ten members on the inner grid

Ensembles & Spreads	Analysis	24 Hour	48 Hour	72 Hour	96 Hour	120 Hour	Loops
Sea Level Pressure	00	24	48	72	96	120	FLI
850 hPa Vorticity	00	24	48	72	96	120	FLI
800 hPa Theta-E	00	24	48	72	96	120	FLI
850:500 hPa Layer RH	00	24	48	72	96	120	FLI
500 hPa Height	00	24	48	72	96	120	FLI
250 hPa Wind Speed	00	24	48	72	96	120	FLI
150:250 hPa PV (with layer average winds) + 800:900 hPa PV (no spreads)	00	24	48	72	96	120	FLI
Total Precipitation						120

Experimental Inner Grid Track Map (each color represents a distinct combination of parameterizations)

Spaghetti Plots (possibly more to come soon):

Overlays of member SLPs less
than 1008 hPa with mean SLP

108

120

FLI

More outer grid plots to come soon ...